THE ESCALATING COST OF LEADING FROM BEHIND
by Rachel Ehrenfeld and Ken Jensen
Leading from behind in Libya cost the lives of four Americans. That U.S. policy may end up costing many more than the reported 80,000-130,000 lives that have already been lost in Syria.
A basic misconception of the Arab/ Islamic world has for decades been ruling U.S. policy regarding the Middle East.
Perhaps the most dangerous error in judgment has been the U.S. tacit acceptance of the Assad regimes' decades-long growing WMD arsenal.
The salafist terror group, Jabhat al-Nusra, an extension of al Qaeda in Iraq, joined the Syrian Sunni jihadist groups in January 2012. However, it took the State Department almost a year to designate the group as terrorist. Perhaps Obama's repeated assertions that al Qaeda has been decimated as a result of killing bin Laden, slowed the designation.
In the meantime, al-Nusra has been attracting Sunni jihadists from all over the world, not only from Iraq. The sophistication and experience of these al-Qaeda terrorists has led to the dramatic escalation in the fighting in Syria and to mortars exploding in the heart of Damascus.
As feared, fighting between Sunni jihadis and Alwaites has erupted again in Tripoli, Lebanon's second-largest city, and in Beirut: the Hezbollah-appointed, Sunni prime minister Najib Mikati[1] has resigned, further destabilizing the country.
In the meantime, Syrian government forces continued to fire on Hezbollah bases in the Bekaa[2] Valley, and Israeli forces that have been fired on in the Golan, fired in return into Syria. Today, Jordan closed its border with Syria following reports that al Nusra forces had taken over an important junction near the border. Realizing the Assad ship is sinking, the UN[3] decided "temporarily" to abandon Syria.
News on CIA involvement in the war has become more detailed,[4] and it's clear that the Agency is helping to airlift[5] in to the Syrian rebels loads of arms from Turkey, Arab countries and from the Balkans.
In addition, Syrian rebels have been receiving training from the CIA, British, French and Jordanian intelligence services in weapons and counterintelligence tactics to prevent pro-Assad infiltration. And the Pentagon is helping to train Jordanian forces to counter Syria's chemical weapons threat.
However, the al Nusra Front,[7] already controls broad areas of northern Syria:
"U.S. counterterrorism officials said they have seen a growth in communications among operatives from al Nusra Front, al Qaeda in Iraq and al Qaeda's central leadership in Pakistan. Officials also report growing numbers of al Qaeda fighters traveling from Pakistan to Syria to join the fight with al Nusra. The ties to al Qaeda's central operations have become so significant that U.S. counterterrorism officials are debating whether al Nusra should now be considered its own al Qaeda affiliate instead of an offshoot of al Qaeda in Iraq, as it has generally been viewed within the U.S. government, according to a person familiar with the debate."
Clearly, rumors of al Qaeda's decline have been greatly exaggerated. Even under heavy fire from Assad, it has grown in strength to become the leading rebel force in Syria. The al Nusra Front is now more of a threat to the U.S. and the West than al Qaeda in the Maghreb and Sahel. The latter has been "fueled" by the disbursement of Qaddafi's Libyan arsenal.
Al Nusra may soon by "fueled" by Assad's chemical weapons.
Were chemical weapons on the loose and/or in use in Syria? Immediately after last Tuesday's incident near Aleppo, the Obama administration would neither confirm nor deny this, After all, Obama drew a red line around Syrian chemical weapons, calling their movement or use a "game-changer"[8] for him back in August 2012. A "game-changer" may necessitate a U.S. armed intervention in Syria, which, so far, Obama has been trying to avoid.
Reports from apparently informed sources[9] claimed that last December the White House reached out to Assad and allegedly preventing him from launching a chemical weapons attack: "Even as the administration has repeatedly said that Assad has lost 'legitimacy,' because it has expressed its fears of chemical weapons so publicly, it has effectively legitimized him as an interlocutor simply because he has taken his country hostage."
The best explanation for Obama's point of view on Syria, apart from his general wish to withdraw the U.S. from the rest of the world in all meaningful ways, is that he doesn't want to anger Iran[10] out of the belief that the U.S. can still reach a diplomatic deal on its nuclear program.
"If the Obama White House is capable of sympathizing with Iranian interests, it has failed to take into consideration our own interests in Syria," says Lee Smith.[10] The conflict is spreading and afflicting American allies bordering on Syria-Israel, Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon.... If the administration fears angering the Iranians by backing Assad's enemies, then shouldn't we be angry with Iran for backing Assad to the hilt?"
Apparently not. The Obama administration is readying itself and its allies for the next round of "negotiations" with Iran, on April 5-6, in Almaty, Kazakhstan.
By then, however, al Nusra and Hezbollah fighters stand a good chance of taking over Assad's chemical weapons, perhaps use them, but surely transport them for use elsewhere.
Footnotes
[1] http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001Q1BclwZ0NJ4NaGYL0I1rBzy4vHrvCmiVHY9Wf pWgEJktV3IXhLITyJILBudehwA4-lH0M0xrQawIBCV9b4qeAItqnbqX0BL0O2WXr1JFvmQCgPCMNlojQ kjGKBdjzqCYaNc0JpUzUwAxN8vosxy1JW14h37zUsGDT2GU6FMKxmquOFQt5iLI_7YUi7Ax4xn9piqd6 _cI6uppelaG0jjc8OtvlJJJl8Ons-L9qberF7gfLE4XXsXLoPUG9MMwXWLHD6k0-EYQ4arX92TDrCKLw 137pghlfTD0BS0cxW2bJR_sAMRQlLHKArDAcLaCgBgVbWuDU2LMWSYB_GyHo_P-pIXz3QVnulTucplFo KUGotQyHrwIk7ZX0TFLLw0_EC_92xk6TQKRGnY=
[2] http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001Q1BclwZ0NJ4NaGYL0I1rBzy4vHrvCmiVHY9W fpWgEJktV3IXhLITyJILBudehwA4-lH0M0xrQawIBCV9b4qeAItqnbqX0BL0O2WXr1JFvmQCgPCMNlo jQkjGKBdjzqCYaNc0JpUzUwAxN8vosxy1JW14h37zUsGDT2GU6FMKxmquOFQt5iLI_7YUi7Ax4xn9pi d6_cI6uppelaG0jjc8OtvlJJJl8Ons-L9qberF7gfLE4XXsXLoPUG9MMwXWLHD6k0-EYQ4arX92TDrCK Lw137pghlfTD0BS0cxW2bJR_sAMRQlLHKArDAcLaCgBgVbWuDU2LMWSYB_GyHo_P-pIXz3QVnulTucpl FoKUGotQyHrwIk7ZX0TFLLw0_EC_92xk6TQKRGnY=
[3] http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001Q1BclwZ0NJ4tUszX-dFk1vIlpBUqSYLPyoQE sLLSAHpmjlB55OL3qvqLCgH78gd-FSnCggyCIXjo9XhVuN2_NzYP2Zl3linDxfSbhGgIb8OESydgGOF s5C8DGlN4JRBMRAxhEG6SeHIwNQtAwr6hUZYD4W1WtOd3CFU4ywudkTD-AQgC5ils_CC7a6rX7dPaJw dIIp08q8gb_D0_Dc33VkWmmgHaDpt1z-4Ybgd9njGZ7bdHMc4EC6ghltbhULI1IYjymG75Vk1ojPchC iJjzWJqhSvd0bPb60sBhEH5zzu2ghPNZ9kmlXoCxhmazhF_QMjlrlZCb3tbaaz8h-0usNQ9sCNCN3bo q8LnV5JatFr0QpokiKSZLw==
[4] http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001Q1BclwZ0NJ5CpMgmhIeU9YlWJsU7Uq7-m7kO TIVBbH7XzpzZj0buMwqbdQ0ItiVyma-QDTrEtlJx9wflqyi31uzHrK_4QJx3RyX5Dq0bbYbhowaEsvt yvzPRpaN77MGIHRgRCiY70i_VGoMsxj8yfPUQFw9F2SkDVV527hayFwEZNcBB3jssw-ZI8lSW5ZEea jNTI2n2o37M_OQz-qBkaugS7o5xYXLTUe_BK9maP2dvMRKROSRDvQ9PtNbkHcJxN44ytprnRJGMWwP IXgr1-ioIbxtT5yDNoNd08gNQeM2we9pg0Ym5ez9pyNXz5w6bGuCBmdF83lgyo4Y0rljfP7J9S7-45h k5r7jQrc_RA2dDK0OmE0t-BQBwFxaDhNpeGiG5jBEnARtvd_I9WjU2RA==
[5] http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001Q1BclwZ0NJ5CpMgmhIeU9YlWJsU7Uq7-m7kO TIVBbH7XzpzZj0buMwqbdQ0ItiVyma-QDTrEtlJx9wflqyi31uzHrK_4QJx3RyX5Dq0bbYbhowaEsvt yvzPRpaN77MGIHRgRCiY70i_VGoMsxj8yfPUQFw9F2SkDVV527hayFwEZNcBB3jssw-ZI8lSW5ZEeaj NTI2n2o37M_OQz-qBkaugS7o5xYXLTUe_BK9maP2dvMRKROSRDvQ9PtNbkHcJxN44ytprnRJGMWwPIX gr1-ioIbxtT5yDNoNd08gNQeM2we9pg0Ym5ez9pyNXz5w6bGuCBmdF83lgyo4Y0rljfP7J9S7-45hk5 r7jQrc_RA2dDK0OmE0t-BQBwFxaDhNpeGiG5jBEnARtvd_I9WjU2RA==
[6] http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001Q1BclwZ0NJ5pKoM6VJf2sdIA2yE_q1Vpej0V LlbVeE6__h9ZQ1ZinYXkII04oD4D9dEvHUmpo55TWqkiqCmoYf4jk1BTAnWMLS9MqNoAdVjQA6SFFDR pxq4N0NAX544L2K85ExD7qmmBJl_SwR7M9XfGflpPf2raLDc38y3ccN2k57w1ph4ovoi9GhfNgA8uDn 6WwQNShb29MTrjpuuSwILeEBTw4RoS2ui21be5TPk81mP4za6hDrnMp7q-DfycweeuUBGyNj8eqeZcf WBoTtd17-y4sgNEnEWHZ7jPymjAb9DEtpL_bsu1p8RybT4a8UMFEkPcHgL8t4KpQdP5vPr0InhHs5tc TWMNYg1bUpYpOg3TrEj9-StyxcdiEohud1La4-fs4SGCazJmUVVBgWr1kXAGc6EzwWy62sivfFwuWnr r5BoLHQ==
[7] http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001Q1BclwZ0NJ5CpMgmhIeU9YlWJsU7Uq7-m7kO TIVBbH7XzpzZj0buMwqbdQ0ItiVyma-QDTrEtlJx9wflqyi31uzHrK_4QJx3RyX5Dq0bbYbhowaEsvt yvzPRpaN77MGIHRgRCiY70i_VGoMsxj8yfPUQFw9F2SkDVV527hayFwEZNcBB3jssw-ZI8lSW5ZEea jNTI2n2o37M_OQz-qBkaugS7o5xYXLTUe_BK9maP2dvMRKROSRDvQ9PtNbkHcJxN44ytprnRJGMWwP IXgr1-ioIbxtT5yDNoNd08gNQeM2we9pg0Ym5ez9pyNXz5w6bGuCBmdF83lgyo4Y0rljfP7J9S7-45 hk5r7jQrc_RA2dDK0OmE0t-BQBwFxaDhNpeGiG5jBEnARtvd_I9WjU2RA==
[8] http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001Q1BclwZ0NJ4UXl_7iJ0CUjPcabJOYWCHa9 LqzqbRKg4OrLMdETlFCQC02oLK4jKaWo4_x7PlYoeaYpP0nBoBp7jVVjbuTeorIjVCaFRY6UwkNu7p IVANS8_VEEXlLHYLrMzxczL9J9GHWIYc7jnz2CSVEGSLC7iQSyTKwnZ4QA1rdFnpvllfn1ZyT8frz- j7h8TAzgt9wsqvngG2wUC2eAhe94SOwd-L_dEZtPCyXqlLrNwOVpyVIYyeyUSKHUdXcArVIUCZYPfS v0QDtER-C0I74EOXBw1kfiuMm60VJ24-xZTXszKlw80toVZ8uf700hVbEZhVVVFrzEAk7x_mbYh7jT H7D_LJYEQsnfscdZcaNOux6CX8b-TUJtcE4mzXDvd1qf-3ecjmrky6_JTA7dJEMasfmM9bgnv3uPL0 ICNIUZr8YdlWgcWdDUUGV3DPKkqodMEMrtPRlOYXMsgq0f6qW1OerNY608mPh7QcLBc=
[9] http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001Q1BclwZ0NJ7kZjhLTVL06XEWrlospxsv1 mhjTMUn-a71oWm7Jo9QCgOm2Jz9zCkJqRD1TEDgsI-Q4CO7fY0VwUDNmSsk8i5dg-HgksoVL39uX QQEgjegFv1qaNGTmET-lMqnlhE9ZEV6u_gkHUwlO0KcBQE3kXaxjx9oGErBIsgbXqspkn-HC1nOy ebQD2C5Sule9Xerrsc4F0bz-X_WS5x8i3I8JVoj8TUqDszojBJjOmITtJmWszgx61HxFeSBp3_uN v0l16WxbZd0joYOO8le2QenTgMxm7X58khup2wcqm3mEJA1WY4Gvv9hG6kZRIZuMUfm_HFXl4dfA gjl8Rp-VXcG1qYtjqM4iGoj1lTnLqfmJtEZBjenelsdlJ-y
[10] http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001Q1BclwZ0NJ7kZjhLTVL06XEWrlospxsv 1mhjTMUn-a71oWm7Jo9QCgOm2Jz9zCkJqRD1TEDgsI-Q4CO7fY0VwUDNmSsk8i5dg-HgksoVL39uX QQEgjegFv1qaNGTmET-lMqnlhE9ZEV6u_gkHUwlO0KcBQE3kXaxjx9oGErBIsgbXqspkn-HC1nOyeb QD2C5Sule9Xerrsc4F0bz-X_WS5x8i3I8JVoj8TUqDszojBJjOmITtJmWszgx61HxFeSBp3_uNv0l1 6WxbZd0joYOO8le2QenTgMxm7X58khup2wcqm3mEJA1WY4Gvv9hG6kZRIZuMUfm_HFXl4dfAgjl8Rp -VXcG1qYtjqM4iGoj1lTnLqfmJtEZBjenelsdlJ-y
[11] http://r20.rs6.net/tn.jsp?e=001Q1BclwZ0NJ7kZjhLTVL06XEWrlospxsv1 mhjTMUn-a71oWm7Jo9QCgOm2Jz9zCkJqRD1TEDgsI-Q4CO7fY0VwUDNmSsk8i5dg-HgksoVL39uXQQ EgjegFv1qaNGTmET-lMqnlhE9ZEV6u_gkHUwlO0KcBQE3kXaxjx9oGErBIsgbXqspkn-HC1nOyebQD 2C5Sule9Xerrsc4F0bz-X_WS5x8i3I8JVoj8TUqDszojBJjOmITtJmWszgx61HxFeSBp3_uNv0l16 WxbZd0joYOO8le2QenTgMxm7X58khup2wcqm3mEJA1WY4Gvv9hG6kZRIZuMUfm_HFXl4dfAgjl8Rp- VXcG1qYtjqM4iGoj1lTnLqfmJtEZBjenelsdlJ-y
FURTHER READING:
Ely Karmon: Time to put an Alawite state on the map. Obama's visit
is an important opportunity for Israel to lobby for a grand agreement
between the U.S. and Russia to protect and disarm the Alawite minority
in Syria after the fall of Bashar Assad's regime.
http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/time-to-put-an-alawite-state-on-
the-map.premium-1.510822?utm_source=The+Escalting+Cost+of+Leading+
from+Behind&utm_campaign=ACD%2FEWI+BLOG&utm_medium=email
David Schenker: Saving Jordan's King Abdullah Must Be a U.S.
Priority/ Perhaps Washington's best Arab ally, the monarch
increasingly lacks money and political stability.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014241278873238295045
78267951332697058.html?utm_source=The+Escalting+Cost+of+Leading
+from+Behind&utm_campaign=ACD%2FEWI+BLOG&utm_medium=email
Washington Post: Islamic law comes to rebel-held Syria http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/islamic-law- comes-to-rebelheld-syria/2013/03/19/b310532e-90af-11e2-bdea- e32ad90da239_story.html?utm_source=The+Escalting+Cost+of+ Leading+from+Behind&utm_campaign=ACD%2FEWI+BLOG&utm_medium=email
Confirmed: US shipping weapons to Syria; Al Nusra's 'mystery'
sponsors revealed
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/03/25/295176/confirmed-
us-shipping-weapons-to-syria/?utm_source=The+Escalting+Cost+of+
Leading+from+Behind&utm_campaign=ACD%2FEWI+BLOG&utm_medium=email
Dr. Ehrenfeld is the Director of the New York-based American Center for Democracy (ACD) and the Center for the Study of Corruption & the Rule of Law, www.acdemocracy.org). She is an authority on the shadowy movement of funds through international banking systems and governments to fund terrorism. Rachel Ehrenfeld and Ken Jensen host the ACD Economic Warfare Institute website. Contact them Email at info@acdemocracy.org. This article appeared March 26, 2013, on the American Center for Democracy (ACD) website and is archived at http://acdemocracy.org/the-escalating-cost-of-leading-from-behind/#prettyPhoto
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