THINK-ISRAEL

UNDOCUMENTED IMMIGRANTS, U.S. CITIZENS, AND CONVICTED CRIMINALS IN ARIZONA

by John R. Lott

These are the Summary and Conclusion of a monograph entitled "Undocumented Immigrants, U.S. Citizens, And Convicted Criminals In Arizona" published February 2018 by The Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC). It may be downloaded at
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3099992.

SUMMARY

• Based on data from 1985 to 2017, undocumented immigrants are at least 146% more likely to be convicted of crime than other Arizonans.

• Undocumented immigrants tend to commit more serious crimes and serve 10.5% longer sentences than do U.S. citizens.
• Undocumented immigrants are 163% more likely to be convicted of 1st degree murder than are U.S. citizens, 168% more likely to be convicted of 2nd degree murder, and 189.6% more likely to be convicted of manslaughter. Those three categories and negligent homicide added up to 987 incarcerations.
• Undocumented immigrants are also much more likely to commit sexual offenses against minors, sexual assault, DUI, and armed robbery.

• Young convicts are especially likely to be undocumented immigrants. Undocumented immigrants born after June 15, 1981 are eligible for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). While undocumented immigrants from 15 to 35 years of age make up a little over two percent of the Arizona population, they make up almost 8% of the prison population. These immigrants also tend to commit more serious crimes.
• Undocumented immigrant criminals are 45.4% more likely than other criminals to have been gang members, and 133% more likely to receive sentencing enhancements for being classified as dangerous.
• These numbers may give an artificially low estimate of the share of crime committed by undocumented immigrants. Undocumented immigrants may commit many of their crimes against each other, and their victims may be afraid of calling the police or testifying at trial because of their undocumented status.
• While undocumented immigrants are more likely to be convicted of crimes, they also exhibit extremely low recidivism and criminal history rates. Among criminals who are U.S. citizens, a small subset keeps going in and out of prison. Among undocumented immigrants, a much larger proportion go to prison once or twice and then never return to prison. 24.8% of U.S. citizens were admitted five or more times in the Arizona Department of Corrections, but that same number is only 2.95% for undocumented immigrants. The evidence suggests that these indiviuals leave Arizona after being incarcerated.
• Evidence is provided for whether changes in border enforcement can explain changes in undocumented immigrants share of newly incarcerated inmates.
• If undocumented immigrants committed crime nationally as they do in Arizona, in 2016 they would have been responsible for over 1,000 more murders, 5,200 rapes, 8,900 robberies, 25,300 aggravated assaults, and 26,900 burglaries.

CONCLUSION

To the extent that undocumented immigrants are reluctant to report crimes, the results underestimate undocumented immigrants share of crimes. Still, even given this caution, undocumented immigrants are convicted of crimes at much higher rates than U.S. citizens for they face longer sentences for more serious crimes.

Our reliance on incarceration data means that there is a greater confidence in the accuracy of whether these individuals have committed crime. But it also means that we are underestimating the number of crimes and social costs of criminal activity by undocumented immigrants.

The crime rate by undocumented immigrants also depends on their estimated share of the Arizona population. If there are more undocumented immigrants than claimed, their estimated crime rate goes down. Of course, the opposite might also be true. Yet, the confidence intervals associated with the estimates are very tight.

By lumping together documented and undocumented immigrants, previous research has missed out on the huge differences between these two groups. Just as undocumented immigrants are more likely to be criminals, documented immigrants tend to be very law-abiding. The results here also show that legal Hispanics are more law-abiding than the average Arizonan. The perception that Hispanics are more likely to be criminals arises from not distinguishing between legal and illegal Hispanics.

Undocumented immigrants especially commit crimes at a young age and to be involved in gangs, but then they suddenly stop being convicted. A startling difference is while a large percentage of U.S. citizens who spend their lives cycling through prison, that isn’t the case for undocumented immigrant criminals. The implication for that is not only are the crime rates by undocumented immigrants higher than for U.S. citizens, but an even larger percentage of undocumented immigrants spend at least part of their lives in prison. The question that can’t be definitely answered here is what happens to these undocumented immigrant criminals. Do they quickly reform after being in prison or do they leave Arizona? The most plausible reading of the evidence suggests that they are leaving Arizona, presumably to return to their home country, overwhelmingly Mexico.

---

Editor's Note:

A comment by Mark Hampton expressed a common objection to the findings. He wrote:

"This paper doesn’t once mention the most obvious and serious problem with comparing the prison population with the general population to draw inferences about immigrant crime rates:

"Undocumented immigrants would be far less likely to succeed in any criminal defense and far less likely to seek and receive parole.

"Interestingly, I suspect the opposite is true of documented immigrants, perhaps explaining at least part of their lower conviction incidence: they tend to have good access to networks of lawyers and defense attorneys as their process of becoming immigrants and maintaining legal status requires it.

"Because the author has not even acknowledged this confounding factor, let alone address it, this study is not worth serious consideration."

John Lott responded:

"Thanks, Mark. But as the paper notes, neither of these explanations explain the results.

"1) Parole was abolished in Arizona as of January 1, 1994. “The Arizona Legislature passed truth-in-sentencing laws in 1993. Laws 1993, Chapter 255, altered earned release mechanisms and abolished parole for offenses committed on or after January 1, 1994.” The results are even strengthened if you only examine the period after that date.
https://www.azleg.gov/briefs/Senate/TRUTH%20IN%20SENTENCING.pdf

"2) There is another way of measuring the severity of crimes by undocumented immigrants and that is instead of looking at the number of days in prison, you look at the relative share of undocumented immigrants committing the most serious violent crimes. And again they are over-represented by that measure".

Most of the comments added personal observation or experience. These are some of them:

Tom Campbell I hope this study entices other researchers to look into other states’ results. ?How many other states collect data similar to AZ’s? It is important to measure AZ against other parts, and, hopefully, the rest of the country. The significant extent of this kind of issue in AZ is not new. I just finished reading Samuel K Dolan’s “Cowboys and Gangsters,” which looks at law men and law breakers in TX, AZ, and NM in the early third of the 20th C. The concluding sentence? “Nothing has changed.” Important study and results.

Bob Schmidt From my experience in Illinois with both citizens, legal and illegal aliens, the vast majority of crime is never captured in police reports, let alone court records or prison records. Maybe 90% of murders are in the murder statistics. But at the other extreme, less than 5% of burglaries are in those statistics. Less than 20% of arsons are in arson statistics (my specialty). Statistics on court records cannot be extrapolated to the entire society without a lot of other substantiation.

John Lacher I am involved with a Community Watch Program and the social media platform called, Nextdoor in Chico, California. 8 out of 10 subjects that are arrested for crimes are in the United States illegally from Mexico. We have seen an increase in illegals from Mexico and crimes committed by Mexican illegals. Gov. Jerry Brown and Lt. Gov Gavin Newsome have contributed greatly to illegal entry and crimes after making California a sanctuary state. Chico, California reports a homeless population of between 1500 and 3000 people. We have no idea how many of the Mexican illegals are part of the homeless population.

Ruth I can tell you from personal experience living in Az. for 25 years that illegals are a curse on the state and the country . I cant ell yo the many crimes of people I know personally that had crimes committed against them by illegals . My son alone had his car stolen with all his possessions in it as he was moving , They found it later burned up in the desert ,mostly they take it mexico or a chop shop . Thousands of auto accidents where the illegals jump out of the car and leave it there . My son was at the ATM machine and 4 Mexicans jumped him and beat him seriously . My friends have had crimes against them . The Phoenix police Dept will tell you they dont even bother taking police reports anymore from accidents because the illegals use alias’s never using their real names. I had a neighbor that was cut with a knife across their arms stopped at a light while illegals stole his car . Mesa ,Az had a serial rapists for 8 months and when finally found he was an illegal. I could go on but I know what the crime is nobody or their research will ever convince Americans any different than living the nightmare . When speaking with my foster sons friend who was from Mexico said “we only come here to make fast money send it home and within a few years we can build a beautiful house in Mexico . We dont care about Americans or this country ” Even my foster son who came as a refugee from Nicaragua was disgusted by what his friend said . Thats what this country is dealing with on a 8. on the Richter Scale .

Ron Willis Mark Hampton referred to “Undocumented immigrants” as the problem, where honest folks on vacation in the US, forgot their documents. He and others making excuses for them will never admit the problem is illegal aliens, coming into our country in an unlawful manner, committing serious violent crimes against not only lawful US citizens, but other illegal aliens as well. That latter category greatly under reported, and thus not reflected in studies. In my 37 year law enforcement career, I’ve encountered the problem time and again.

---

John R. Lott is President of The Crime Prevention Research Center (CPRC).

This article is the summary and conclusion of John R. Lott's monograph entitled, "Undocumented Immigrants, U.S. Citizens, And Convicted Criminals In Arizona."
It is archived at Think-Israel at
http://www.think-israel.org/lott.arizonacrimes.html

The monograph was published February 10, 2018. It can be downloaded at
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3099992.