THINK-ISRAEL

extracts from AL-QAEDA IN THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT (AQIS): The Nucleus of Jihad in South Asis

by The Soufan Center

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Seventeen years after the 9/11 attacks, al-Qaeda has survived, due in large part to a deliberate strategy focused on gaining the support of the masses by “going local.” Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), the youngest affiliate of al-Qaeda, is in many ways the realization of that new strategy. Western counterterrorism circles are slowly recognizing the viability of al-Qaeda’s reach into South Asia, as AQIS appears to be building its capabilities throughout the region as other terrorist groups, including the Islamic State’s regional affiliate, Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), bear the brunt of global counter-terrorism operations. This paper takes a fresh look at the emergence of AQIS — its leadership, funding sources, and future role as a dominant actor in the global jihadist movement. Moreover, this paper assesses the group’s ability to target the U.S. homeland and its assets abroad.

AQIS was, in the words of Ayman Al Zawahiri, “a result of years of efforts to bring together various jihadist factions under one banner.” Because AQIS is so closely tied to Zawahiri, this specific affiliate seems to be the perfect blueprint for al-Qaeda Core (AQC) to use as a litmus test for current and future franchise groups and affiliates. Therefore, a proper assessment of AQIS must be contextualized within the broader regional and geopolitical dynamics, but also predicated upon an analysis of AQC and its status nearly two decades after the attacks of 9/11.

The principal success of AQIS has been its ability to rewrite the global jihadist narrative from a regional perspective, what the authors refer to as the ‘Glo-cal’ jihad: a narrative that has local roots but global aspirations. This proved to be a masterstroke for al-Qaeda, as it opened access to recruits to replenish its dwindling cadre and leadership. This Glo-cal jihad employs local resources to launch attacks on global targets. To ensure success of this model, Al-Qaeda has allowed its affiliates to rebrand and transform themselves into groups focused mainly on regional political agendas. This was a conscious effort to gain a wider domestic support base, while allowing al-Qaeda to exploit support from local populations more interested in seeking solutions to their domestic issues than working for the success of something as far removed from their lives as global jihad.

Very early on, AQIS demonstrated its own capability by launching a spectacular, though abortive, attack on a Pakistan Navy frigate, the PNS Zulfiqar. Its connections to the region mean that AQIS has both the capabilities and logistical support to plan and execute similar spectacular attacks in the future. Close geographical and ideological proximity to AQC allows for a more fluid command and control apparatus. While the group is in its nascent stages, it has already proven itself as an adaptive adversary able to capitalize upon local grievances and serve as a facilitator for other terrorist groups in the broader jihadist network that stretches throughout the region.

Between 2014 and 2015, AQIS’ leadership suffered heavy losses at the hands of both Pakistani and U.S. counter-terrorism operations. After a string of defeats, many knowledgeable observers believed that AQIS, like the majority of terrorist organizations, would not survive past its first few years. However, al-Qaeda’s South Asian progeny demonstrated remarkable resilience and now seems to be on course for a comeback, not just in South Asia, but into Afghanistan and beyond. Beginning late 2016, the group attempted to recast itself in the wake of massive upheavals in the jihadi world, beginning with the demise of the caliphate in Iraq and Syria. Its emergence as one of the most dominant affiliates of al-Qaeda is attributed not only to its geographical and operational proximity to AQC, but also to its success in weaving the local narrative into the broader discourse of the global jihadist movement.

Like most terrorist groups that are successful in financing their organizations, AQIS maintains a diverse funding portfolio that includes donations from individuals and charities, Kidnapping for Ransom (KFR), and money solicited or siphoned from other terrorist groups, including Lashkar e Toiba (LeT). Since nearly one-third of AQIS’ operating budget is derived from donations from individual citizens, this will make it extremely difficult to counter the group’s finances, a major long-term challenge in combating the group overall.

With its deliberate strategy of shunning coercion and its rejection of brutal Islamic State tactics, AQIS is attempting to reach out to local leaders and broader community members within the Muslim world. The emphasis on tolerant rules, like abstaining from attacking noncombatant Buddhists, Christians, and Hindus, is a strategic move to gain support from less radical jihadi outfits operating in South Asia and elsewhere. This AQC strategy, of which AQIS is an integral part, is a calculated attempt to regain the leadership of global jihad and provide al-Qaeda with momentum as it seeks to capitalize upon the momentary demise of IS.

Wahhabi influence has resulted in an increase in Islamist violence in Pakistan, Indian Kashmir, and Bangladesh. Most of the governments in these South Asian countries have made a clear connection between money and resources provided by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the radicalization of Islam in their own countries. There appears to be a strong linkage between the spread of Wahhabism and increasing conservatism in South Asia. Though the assumption that madrassas (religious seminaries) are principal engines of global Islamic terrorism is ill-founded, it is certainly true that many Wahhabi madrassas in South Asia have been directly linked to Islamic radicalism, something which was absent in the Sufi-Islam dominated region a few decades ago.

The disagreements between al-Qaeda’s senior leadership and al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), the precursor to IS, in the mid-2000s fundamentally shaped al-Qaeda’s strategic shift. The failure of AQC to reign in the brutality of AQI provided an important lesson to the parent organization, namely, that it needed to exercise more moral, and at times operational, control over its affiliates. Further, the success of IS in Iraq, which was predicated upon support it received from local Sunni groups, solidified AQC’s realization of the need to focus more aggressively on developing local roots, cultivating these ties and ultimately strengthening its base in South Asia—the region that hosted its fighters for more than a decade and a half. AQC wanted to move from being a guest, dependent on the benevolence of its hosts, to being a host itself.

Importantly, the current socio-political dynamics in South Asia will play a critical role in the expansion or contraction of AQIS’ appeal. The amplification of an inter-communal divide and growing sectarian violence in the region has the potential of serving the jihadists’ cause. AQIS is exploiting these narratives by calling on Indian Muslims to join the jihad to defend their religion and their honor. The situation in Kashmir has also taken an unprecedented turn. For the first time since the onset of conflict in Kashmir, the region is responding to the appeal of groups like al-Qaeda. Local Kashmiris lead the AQIS wing in the contested territory, which reflects the growing Islamization of Kashmiri militancy. AQIS is also gaining momentum in Bangladesh. Though there is considerable concern about Southeast Asian jihadists joining on behalf of the Rohingya cause, a far bigger concern should be AQIS hijacking the Rohingya insurgency, as AQIS is both organizationally and geographically closer to the core of the Rohingya crisis.

The chances of AQIS conducting a successful attack on U.S. soil are negligible, although the group still poses a significant threat to U.S. interests at the regional level, where militants could target embassies, hotels or other areas frequented by Westerners. Further, given China’s vested political and economic interests throughout South Asia—investment and infrastructure carried out by state-owned enterprises—it is of pivotal importance that China can guarantee the security of its citizens and protect its investments abroad.

In late December 2018, President Trump announced that the United States would begin withdrawing approximately 7,000 troops from Afghanistan, effectively cutting the U.S. military presence in that country in half. The drawdown of U.S. troops comes at a critical time, just as al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS) is embedding more of its fighters as both military trainers and advisers to the Afghan Taliban. With fewer troops to combat a growing AQIS presence in Afghanistan, 2019 could very well witness a surge in al-Qaeda’s operational capabilities throughout South Asia, especially as the remaining U.S. troops are focused on fighting militants from the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) and training and advising the struggling Afghan National Security Forces.

KEY FINDINGS

• Over the last three decades, Islam in South Asia has undergone a gradual shift, from moderate and pluralistic to a more puritan Wahhabi brand practiced in Saudi Arabia. The spread of thousands of Saudi-funded madrassas and Wahhabi mosques across South Asia is proving to be an ideal recruiting base for al-Qaeda and other jihadist groups throughout the region
• AQIS is a major node in a broad-based, loosely organized jihadist network that has deep roots in South Asia. Until recently, AQIS has relied on traditional methods of clandestine terrorist activity, like using person-to-person contacts for recruitment, training, and indoctrination. Still, it seems inevitable that the group’s efforts, both in terms of recruitment and spreading its propaganda, will continue to migrate more pervasively to the Internet and social media.
• The growing communal divide and increased incidences of violent attacks on Muslims in India has created an atmosphere of fear and exacerbated tensions between Hindus and Muslims in the region. AQIS is attempting to exploit this hostility through repeated Urdu language rhetoric in the form of propaganda pushed out on various social media channels.
• The common notion that al-Qaeda and its affiliates only operate and thrive in conflict zones, such as Yemen, Libya, and Syria, is incorrect. AQIS illustrates how al-Qaeda successfully infiltrates, operates, and spreads its ideology in countries experiencing relative calm, like India. This model may prove to be al-Qaeda’s blueprint for the future.
• The principal success of AQIS has been its ability to rewrite the global jihadist narrative from a regional perspective: a narrative with local roots but global aspirations. AQIS has adopted a deliberate strategy of eschewing the savage tactics of the Islamic State (IS). AQIS’ new code of conduct is a deliberate attempt to reestablish al-Qaeda as the leader of global jihad, a position it had lost to IS since the latter’s rise in 2014.
• Even though the majority of recent analysis on foreign terrorist fighters focuses on the so-called Islamic State, it is important to realize that, behind the mobilization to Syria and Iraq, the next largest mobilization of foreign fighters was the Afghan jihad. Given the history of failed states and civil wars, along with ungoverned spaces and porous borders, in South Asia, countries like Afghanistan and Pakistan will continue to be attractive destinations for foreign terrorist fighters.
• The United States in particular and the West in general continue to remain al-Qaeda’s primary targets. AQIS poses a threat to other states in the international system, such as China, which is increasing its presence in South Asia. Recent attacks like the shooting at the Chinese consulate in Karachi and the killing of a prominent Chinese businessman, while not tied to AQIS directly, offer clear signals that China is also a legitimate target for terrorists in the region.